The global system designed to protect human rights is facing its most serious threat in decades, according to a stark new report from Human Rights Watch (HRW). The world, the organisation warns, has entered a period of “democratic recession,” with nearly three-quarters of the global population now living under autocratic rule, a level not seen since the mid-1980s.
At the centre of this decline, HRW argues, is a convergence of authoritarian pressures from traditional rights-abusing states such as Russia and China, combined with what it describes as a dramatic erosion of democratic norms and safeguards in the United States under President Donald Trump’s second-term administration.
“The system underpinning human rights is in peril,” said Philippe Bolopion, executive director of HRW, ahead of the publication of the organisation’s annual country-by-country assessment. The rise of authoritarianism, he said, now represents “the challenge of a generation.”
The report paints a picture of a world in which the legal, political, and moral architecture built after the Second World War to protect freedoms is being steadily dismantled not only by openly authoritarian governments, but also by democracies that once served as its strongest defenders.
The Meaning of a “Democratic Recession”
HRW’s warning is rooted in a concept that has gained increasing traction among political scientists and human rights advocates: democratic recession.
What Is a Democratic Recession?
A democratic recession refers to a sustained global decline in:
- Free and fair elections
- Judicial independence
- Freedom of expression and assembly
- Government accountability and checks on executive power
According to HRW’s findings, democracy worldwide has regressed to levels last seen in 1985. Approximately 72% of the world’s population now lives under autocratic systems, where political power is concentrated, and dissent is restricted.
This shift, HRW argues, did not begin with Donald Trump but his return to the US presidency has significantly accelerated it.
A Tipping Point in the United States
“2025 Was a Turning Point.”
Bolopion described 2025 as a “tipping point” for human rights and democratic norms in the United States.
In just one year, HRW says, the Trump administration launched what it calls a “broad and coordinated assault” on the foundational pillars of American democracy institutions and principles that had long underpinned not only US governance, but the global rules-based order.
For decades, the United States played a central role in shaping international human rights law and institutions, even while failing at times to live up to those standards domestically. According to HRW, that role has now reversed.
“The US is no longer merely inconsistent,” Bolopion said. “It is working in the opposite direction.”
Undermining the Foundations of US Democracy
HRW’s report details a wide range of actions taken during Trump’s second term that it says have weakened democratic safeguards and human rights protections.
Elections and Voting Rights
Among the most serious concerns cited is Trump’s renewed effort to undermine trust in elections.
Bolopion pointed to the president’s recent calls on Republican lawmakers to “nationalise” the US voting system, remarks that critics say could centralise executive control over elections and erode state-level safeguards.
HRW argues that repeated attacks on electoral legitimacy without evidence of widespread fraud have had a corrosive effect on public trust and democratic participation.
Checks, Balances, and Executive Power
The report describes what it calls an “organised, relentless, and determined” effort to dismantle checks and balances designed to limit executive authority.
According to HRW, this includes:
- Attacks on judicial independence
- Defiance of court orders
- Efforts to weaken oversight bodies
- The politicisation of federal agencies
“These safeguards were designed to limit power and protect rights,” Bolopion said. “What we are seeing is a sustained effort to remove those limits.”
Targeting Political Opponents and Civil Society
HRW also documents the use of government powers to intimidate or punish perceived critics and opponents.
The report cites actions against:
- Political rivals
- Journalists and media organisations
- Law firms
- Universities and researchers
- Civil society groups
- Even comedians and satirists
Such actions, HRW argues, blur the line between governance and political retaliation, creating a climate of fear that discourages dissent.
Free Speech and the Rule of Law
Recent incidents highlighted in the report include restrictions on free speech and cases in which individuals were deported or threatened with removal to countries where they could face torture or serious abuse.
HRW says these actions represent a direct assault on the rule of law and longstanding international obligations under treaties prohibiting refoulement — the return of individuals to places where they face severe harm.
Financial Ethics and Conflicts of Interest
Bolopion also referenced revelations that a member of an Emirati royal family was behind a reported $500m investment in a cryptocurrency company linked to the Trump family.
HRW argues that such financial entanglements raise serious concerns about corruption, conflicts of interest, and the erosion of ethical norms in public office.
The Global Impact of US Backsliding
The report stresses that the consequences of democratic erosion in the United States extend far beyond its borders.
Why the US Matters Globally
For decades, the US played a central role in:
- Supporting international human rights institutions
- Enforcing sanctions for rights abuses
- Promoting democratic norms in diplomacy
When the US weakens these norms at home, HRW argues, it emboldens authoritarian leaders elsewhere and undermines global accountability mechanisms.
Russia and China: Long-Term Pressures on the Rules-Based Order
HRW situates Trump’s actions within a broader global context shaped by Russia and China.
Russia
Russia, the report notes, is significantly less free today than it was 20 years ago, with:
- Severe repression of dissent
- Criminalisation of opposition
- Restrictions on independent media
China
China, meanwhile, continues to:
- Expand mass surveillance
- Detain ethnic and religious minorities
- Suppress political freedoms
According to HRW, both countries have worked for years to weaken international norms that constrain state power.
A “Perfect Storm” for Human Rights
What makes the current moment uniquely dangerous, HRW argues, is the convergence of these pressures.
“Under relentless pressure from US President Donald Trump, and persistently undermined by China and Russia, the rules-based international order is being crushed,” Bolopion warned.
The result, the organisation says, is a “perfect storm” for human rights, one that threatens to dismantle decades of progress.
Trump and International Law
Bolopion highlighted Trump’s own rhetoric as emblematic of this shift.
“Trump has boasted that he doesn’t ‘need international law’ as a constraint,” he said, adding that the president has suggested he relies instead on his “own morality.”HRW argues that such statements undermine the idea that states are bound by shared legal standards — a cornerstone of the post-war international system.
The United Kingdom: Democratic Backsliding Closer to Home
The HRW report does not limit its criticism to the United States.
UK Findings
According to HRW, the British government also “repeatedly undermined” human rights in 2025.
Key concerns include:
- A punitive approach to immigration
- Restrictions on the right to protest
- Failure to adequately address the cost-of-living crisis
The organisation argues that harsh immigration policies have helped push anti-migrant rhetoric into the political mainstream.
Anti-Migrant Rhetoric and the Far Right
Bolopion warned that anti-migrant rhetoric represents a “dangerous trend” not only in the UK, but also in France, Germany, and other European countries.
He argued that Trump has actively encouraged this shift by framing migration as a civilisational threat, including claims that Europe faces “civilisational erasure.”
By invoking racist tropes and portraying entire populations as unwelcome, Bolopion said, Trump is “flirting with far-right ideology.”
A Long Decline, Not a Sudden Collapse
HRW is careful to note that the democratic recession did not begin with Trump.
Decades in the Making
The erosion of democratic norms has unfolded over decades, driven by:
- Rising inequality
- Disinformation
- Weak institutions
- Public disillusionment
Trump’s second term, HRW argues, has acted as an accelerant — not the sole cause.
“Less Free Than 20 Years Ago”
The foreword to the HRW report delivers one of its most striking conclusions:
“Russia and China are less free today than 20 years ago. And so is the United States.”
This statement, HRW says, reflects a historic shift in the global balance between freedom and authoritarianism.
A Call for Democratic Alliances
Despite the bleak assessment, HRW argues that democratic governments still have options.
A Strategic Democratic Bloc
Bolopion called on democracies such as:
- The UK
- The European Union
- Canada
to form a strategic alliance to defend the rules-based order.
Such an alliance, he said, could:
- Act as a powerful economic bloc
- Offer incentives for rights-respecting policies
- Counter efforts to undermine multilateral governance
- Form a strong voting coalition at the United Nations
The Role of Civil Society
HRW stresses that civil society remains a critical line of defense in what it describes as a “dangerous new world.”
Activists, journalists, lawyers, and grassroots movements continue to push back against authoritarian trends, often at great personal risk.
“This is a challenging time,” Bolopion said, “but one for action, not for despair.”
Signs of Resistance and Hope
The report highlights recent protests as evidence that public resistance remains alive.
Examples include:
- Anti-ICE protests in Minneapolis following the fatal shootings of Alex Pretti and Renee Good by federal immigration officers
- Protests in Iran, sparked by economic collapse, expanded into demands for political reform
- Gen Z-led protests in Morocco over underfunded healthcare and education
HRW argues these movements show that authoritarianism is being contested, not accepted.
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FAQs
What does HRW mean by “democratic recession”?
A global decline in democratic governance, rights, and freedoms, with more people living under authoritarian rule.
Why is the US central to the report?
Because US actions have an outsized global influence and can either reinforce or undermine international human rights norms.
Is Trump solely responsible for this decline?
No. HRW says the trend predates Trump but has accelerated significantly during his second term.
How do Russia and China factor into this?
They have long worked to weaken international rules and now benefit from democratic backsliding elsewhere.
What is the rules-based international order?
A system of laws, institutions, and norms designed to govern state behavior and protect human rights globally.
Does HRW see any hope?
Yes. Through democratic alliances, civil society action, and sustained public resistance.
Conclusion
The Human Rights Watch report paints a sobering picture of a world at a crossroads. The erosion of democratic norms, the weakening of international law, and the rise of authoritarian governance are no longer confined to distant or traditionally repressive states. They are unfolding within democracies themselves, including the United States.
